You probably don’t know what Segal’s Law is, even though you’ve heard it before: “Someone with a watch knows what time it is, but someone with two watches is never sure.”
The underlying message is that more information isn’t always better. It can lead to confusion instead of conclusion. Segal’s Law accurately describes my job whenever I try to figure out where the housing market is going.
Because housing and crisis are two words that have gone together ever since the pandemic ended, more researchers have been studying the issue. Sadly, they’re not really clarifying your chances of getting into your first or next home.
For instance, Homes.com reported that “the national median sale price rose to $401,000, up 1.5% from a year earlier.” While the industry website called this increase “modest,” the last thing homebuyers need right now is for already overpriced homes to creep up even more.
Then again, maybe the price wave is cresting. Two days later, I saw this: “U.S. pending home sales fell 2.2% week over week during the four weeks ending July 12, the first decline in a month.”
That was from Redfin, a real estate brokerage website known for its research. It’s good news because falling sales are typically followed by falling prices. As Redfin put it, “Some house hunters backed off due to stubbornly high housing costs.” Hopefully, home sellers will feel pressured to drop their price to get some offers.
Then again, Redfin also reported in July: “The weekly average mortgage rate rose back up to 6.49% after dipping to 6.43% the previous week, and the daily average rate shot up to its highest level in nearly a year.”
So even if you get a good price, your savings might be chewed up by higher interest on your mortgage.
Sometimes there’s news that’s good and bad at the same time. One July example is this from ATTOM, a real estate data firm…
There were a total of 227,548 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings – default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions – in the first six months of 2026. That figure is up 21 percent from the same time period a year ago and up 28 percent from the same time period two years ago.
Foreclosures are obviously terrible for the families who must move out. They’re also bad for the economy, since local and county governments are deprived of property taxes that fund everything from police to schools.
But foreclosures can also be a sign that things are bottoming out.
“Foreclosure activity continued to increase in the first half of 2026, but the broader picture remains one of a market that is gradually returning to more typical patterns,” says Rob Barber, the CEO at ATTOM.
I’ll interpret his next part for you: “The combination of rising foreclosure starts, increased foreclosure completions, and shorter timelines points to a continued normalization of the foreclosure process.”
In plain English, Barber is saying that the housing market might be returning to its pre-pandemic levels, since so many struggling homeowners are now clearing out – and those homes can go back on the market, driving down prices. Like a forest fire that clears the brush, it looks bad in the moment. But it allows new growth in the future.
One thing I know for sure, and which research has consistently proven, is that housing counseling is always helpful.
Consolidated Credit is part of a national network of nonprofits that offer a slew of programs for motivated but confused homebuyers. We’re certified by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), which allows us to decipher the complex homebuying process. Best of all, calling us for a consultation is free.
No matter how many watches you have, calling a HUD-certified housing counselor will give you the correct information.
